you had a belief, the world handed you evidence, now update or admit you weren't thinking, just believing.
means an approach to probability where you start with a prior belief and revise it as new evidence arrives, rather than treating each fact in isolation.
from named after thomas bayes, an 18th-century english minister whose theorem on conditional probability was published posthumously in 1763 by his friend richard price; nobody knew it would end up running spam filters.
nate silver's fivethirtyeight — updates election win probabilities as polls roll in
gmail spam filter — updates spam likelihood per word since the 1990s
search and rescue teams — used bayesian search theory to find air france 447 wreckage, 2011
alphago's move evaluation — blended priors with simulation to beat lee sedol, 2016