the.com/dunning kruger
the less you know, the more sure you are — until reality returns your calls.
means a cognitive bias where people with low skill overestimate their competence because the skills needed to be good are the same skills needed to know you are bad.
from named for psychologists david dunning and justin kruger, who in 1999 tested people on grammar, logic, and humor and found the worst performers rated themselves near the top; the study was partly inspired by a bank robber who thought lemon juice made his face invisible to cameras.
the flip sideexperts often underestimate themselves, assuming things are obvious
real studybottom-quartile scorers guessed they beat 62 percent of peers
not stupidityit targets confidence calibration, not raw intelligence