the.com/outcome

the receipt the universe hands you after every bet you didn't know you were placing

means The result or consequence of an action, process, or event — how things actually turn out.

from A plain English compound, 'out' + 'come,' built the same way 'income' is. It started literally as 'that which comes out' — a sprouting, an emergence — before settling into its modern sense of a result. Related to the old verb 'to come out,' it carries the quiet image of something issuing forth, the way a plant comes up from seed or a verdict comes out of deliberation.

latin roots
comes from old verb meaning to come out, literally
survivorship bias
we study winners and ignore the silent failures
medicine
trials now report patient-rated outcomes, not just survival numbers
hindsight trap
good outcomes get mistaken for good decisions, and vice versa
probability
a single outcome never proves the odds were right
for instance

titanic sinking — 1912 ship collision resulted in 1,500 deaths out of 2,224 passengers

apollo 11 moon landing — july 20, 1969: neil armstrong and buzz aldrin reached the lunar surface

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