the.com/efficient market
a market so smart that beating it is basically betting against yesterday's news.
means a market where prices instantly reflect all available information, so no one can consistently outsmart it for profit.
from formalized by economist eugene fama in the 1960s-70s, the efficient market hypothesis argued that stock prices already bake in everything knowable, making prices unpredictable except by new information.
nobel payofffama won the 2013 nobel prize for this idea.
three flavorsweak, semi-strong, and strong versions exist.
ironic twinshares the same nobel year as behavioral critic robert shiller.
index fundsthe theory basically justified passive investing's rise.