crime pays, so economists made criminals do math before they do the crime.
means a 1968 economic theory arguing people commit crimes by rationally weighing expected gains against the odds and severity of punishment, just like any other cost-benefit decision.
from gary becker, a university of chicago economist, claimed he came up with it after being late for a parole hearing, calculating in his head whether to park illegally by weighing the fine against the odds of getting caught. he turned that napkin math into crime and punishment: an economic approach, treating criminals as rational actors rather than psychological anomalies.
three strikes laws — 1990s us sentencing built on deterrence-through-severity logic
irs audit modeling — tax agencies set audit odds using becker-style deterrence math
becker's parking ticket — the originating anecdote, chicago, late 1960s