math for figuring out the least regrettable way to gamble with an uncertain future.
means a formal framework for choosing actions when outcomes are uncertain, using probabilities and payoffs to rank your options.
from grew out of 17th-century probability work on gambling problems, then got weaponized by economists and statisticians in the 1940s-50s, especially von neumann and morgenstern's game theory and savage's work on subjective probability, to formalize how rational agents should choose under uncertainty.
pascal's wager — betting on god's existence as an expected-value calculation, 1670
newcomb's problem — philosopher's paradox about predictors that splits decision theorists into camps
cuban missile crisis — kennedy's advisors used game-theoretic reasoning to avoid nuclear war, 1962
fda drug approval — regulatory choices modeled as decisions under uncertain risk and benefit