the.com/prediction
a confident bet against the future, dressed up in math and crossed fingers
means A statement about what will happen before it actually does, based on reasoning, data, or sheer hopeful guesswork.
from From Latin praedictio, built from prae- 'before' plus dicere 'to say' — literally 'a saying-beforehand.' The same dicere ('to say, speak') seeds a whole family of English words: dictate, verdict, contradict, even diction. So a prediction is, at root, just speech aimed forward in time, daring the future to disagree.
- weather limit
- Atmospheric chaos caps forecasts at about two weeks
- expert blind spot
- Specialists often predict worse than simple statistical models
- self-fulfilling
- Predicting a bank run can cause the run
- oracle business
- Delphi's vague prophecies were profitably unfalsifiable
- hindsight bias
- People insist they knew outcomes all along
the farmer's almanac — annual publication predicting weather and events since 1818
nate silver's fivethirtyeight — election prediction model correctly called 50/50 states in 2012
nostradamus quatrains — 16th century predictions interpreted by scholars as forecasting major events